UP expert sees PH likely to flatten COVID curve this month or Sept.

By end of August or September, Dr. Guido David sees the Philippines likely flattening the COVID-19 curve as rate of reproduction of the coronavirus continues to drop. (PIA NCR)

CALOOCAN CITY, Aug. 26 (PIA) -- The Philippines is likely to flatten the COVID-19 curve by end of August or September, according to an expert from the University of the Philippines (UP) on Wednesday.

During today’s re-airing of the Laging Handa public briefing presented by the Presidential Communications Operations Office, Dr. Guido David, a member of the UP-OCTA Research, expressed hope and said looking at the reproduction number or the r0 (r-naught) of the country, particularly in Metro Manila, the Philippines is likely to flatten the pandemic curve in as early as end of this month.

“Sa ngayon umaasa tayong kaya pa rin iyan na mga katapusan ng August ma-flatten ang curve, or pwedeng kahit September siguro mangyari iyan," David said.

“Yung sinabi nating magfa-flatten 'yung curve, ang basis pa lang natin diyan ay 'yung reproduction number, R naught at pababa na siya. Nakikita namin ang trajectory niya ay bababa na siya below 1,” he added.

“Ibig sabihin niyan 'yung transmission rate ay bumabagal na at kumokonti na ang number of cases per day,” he furthered.

David also noted that the trend in the transmission of the virus in the country has began to slow down due mainly to stricter lockdown measures implemented recently over Metro Manila and other neighboring areas.

“Hindi ibig sabihin na na-flatten 'yung curve ay wala na tayong COVID, ibig sabihin ay nasa downward trend na tayo,” he pointed out, further explaining that a consistent slowing down of transmission rate in the country is needed before flattening of the curve becomes a possibility.

The expert, however, threw caution for the public not to be complacent amid the development, as he expects that the “more aggressive” solutions of the government in terms of isolation can help continue the downward trend in the trajectory of cases in the country.

“Hindi ibig sabihin na kapag sinabi nating nagfa-flatten na iyong curve na irreversible siya.  The trend can always reverse, we can always have another surge if we're not careful,” David said.

“We have to remind people that the recovery is just beginning,” he added.

“Hindi pa tapos ang laban kapag na-flatten 'yung curve, dapat sustained 'yung efforts natin para mapababa ang bilang ng kaso,” he furthered. (PIA NCR)

Source: Philippines Information Agency (pia.gov.ph)